败选之后，特朗普的“出路”有哪些？
What’s Next for Trump? The Family Business Awaits His Return
BEN PROTESS, STEVE EDER, ERIC LIPTON
2020年11月9日
President Trump’s tax records show signs of financial distress, he claims to have lost out on billions of dollars in income while in office and his eldest sons say the family business has forfeited dozens of potential deals across the globe.
特朗普总统的缴税记录显示他的财务状况堪忧，他声称在任期间已经损失了数十亿美元的收入，他的两个大儿子也说，家族企业在全球丢了数十笔潜在的交易。
Now, denied a second term by voters, Mr. Trump may seek to return to a once-lucrative career in television, this time with a decidedly political bent. His family business will also be free to make up for lost time by once again looking overseas, where hotels and golf clubs helped drive its growth before his election in 2016.
现在，由于选民拒绝了他的连任，特朗普可能会寻求重返曾经给他带来滚滚财源的电视行业，这一次显然会有一定的政治色彩。他的家族企业也会通过再次将目光投向海外来弥补失去的时间。在2016年当选总统之前，海外的酒店和高尔夫俱乐部帮助推动了他的家族企业的增长。
Eric Trump and a spokeswoman for the Trump Organization did not respond on Saturday to requests for comment on the business’s post-White-House plans. The president put out a statement disputing the outcome of the election, indicating that he did not believe he had lost.
埃里克·特朗普(Eric Trump)和特朗普集团(Trump Organization)的发言人周六未回应对特朗普卸任后该公司发展计划的置评请求。总统发表声明，对选举结果提出异议，表明他不相信自己输掉了选举。
After winning the presidency four years ago, Mr. Trump declined to sell off his stake in the Trump Organization, and instead adopted a plan that he said would eliminate conflicts of interest. Among other things, the Trump Organization pledged to forgo new deals outside the United States and hired an ethics adviser to screen certain domestic ventures.
四年前赢得总统大选后，特朗普拒绝出售自己在特朗普集团的股份，而是采纳了一项他说将消除利益冲突的计划。除此之外，特朗普集团还承诺放弃在美国境外的新交易，并聘请一名道德顾问对集团的某些国内业务进行筛查。
Democrats and others argued that the restrictions were half-measures at best, and indeed the approach did little to prevent the president from turning his resorts and hotels into a hub of favor seeking for lobbyists, donors and corporate chiefs, as The New York Times reported in October.
民主党人和其他人认为，这些做法充其量只是折中措施，事实上，正如《纽约时报》10月报道的那样，它们几乎未能阻止总统把自家的度假村和酒店变成说客、捐赠者和企业领导人趋之若鹜之处。
Still, the presidency took a toll on the privately owned family business, which has not closed a new hotel deal since Mr. Trump entered the White House. The company shelved a proposed chain of budget-friendly hotels last year, and Mr. Trump’s financial disclosure statements showed that his top cash-generating properties had largely gone sideways. Without offering evidence, Mr. Trump claimed last year that being president was “probably costing me from $3 to $5 billion.”
不过，特朗普担任总统也的确给这家私人拥有的家族企业造成了损失。自特朗普入主白宫以来，该集团没有达成任何新的酒店协议。去年，该公司搁置了修建经济型连锁酒店的计划，而特朗普的财务披露声明显示，他最能生金的物业基本上都运转不佳。特朗普去年声称，担任总统“可能让我损失了30亿到50亿美元”，不过他并没有拿出证据支持这种说法。
The ban on new foreign deals probably dealt the biggest blow. Before the presidency, the company was eyeing a major expansion in China; it would even maintain a Chinese bank account and keep an inactive office in Shanghai during the presidency. It had also done exploratory work on new business partnerships in Colombia, Brazil and Turkey.
禁止新的外国交易可能是最大的打击。在担任总统之前，该集团计划在中国进行大规模扩张；在担任总统期间，它甚至保留了在中国的银行账户，并在上海维持着一个没有运转的办事处。它还在哥伦比亚、巴西和土耳其探索建立新的商业合作伙伴关系的可能性。
No longer constrained by its self-imposed ethics plan, the Trump Organization is now expected to seek hotel deals and other business, according to several people close to the company. Even so, there will be numerous obstacles to a rebound, including the coronavirus pandemic, law enforcement investigations into the company and a deeply divided view of Mr. Trump among the American public. Additionally, if Mr. Trump made another run for the White House in 2024, he might need to avoid new foreign entanglements that could provide ammunition for political rivals.
据几位与特朗普集团关系密切的人士透露，该集团已经不再受自己制定的道德计划的约束，现在预计将寻求酒店交易和其他业务。即便如此，复苏仍将面临诸多障碍，包括新冠病毒大流行、执法部门对该公司的调查，以及美国公众对特朗普的看法存在的严重分歧。此外，如果特朗普在2024年再次竞选总统的话，他可能需要避免与外国发生新的勾连，以免为政治对手提供弹药。
As Mr. Trump is poised to once again become a private citizen, here is the landscape for his family business.
随着特朗普再次成为普通老百姓，以下是其家族企业未来可能的景象。
Mr. Trump may begin selling his name again.
特朗普可能会再次开始出售名字的使用权。
The fastest way for the Trump Organization to raise money is to flip the switch on its international deal machine, licensing the Trump name to real estate projects like hotels and residential towers.
特朗普集团筹资的最快方式，就是启动国际交易，将特朗普的名字授权给酒店、住宅楼之类的房地产项目。
When Mr. Trump entered the White House in 2017, Trump Organization executives said the company had left behind more than two dozen such branding deals, including in China, Israel and across South America. As Mr. Trump leaves office, he is popular in some countries, and his brand is widely recognized.
特朗普在2017年入主白宫时，特朗普集团的高管表示，该公司放弃了20多个这样的品牌交易，包括在中国、以色列和南美各地。特朗普即将卸任之际，他在一些国家受到欢迎，其品牌也得到了广泛认可。
The branding deals are largely risk-free for the company because they do not require capital investments and generally make between $500,000 and $1 million a year, at least initially. The payments often decline after units in residential buildings are sold, unless the Trump Organization makes parallel agreements to manage the properties.
品牌推广交易对该公司来说基本上是没有风险的，因为它们不需要资本投入，通常每年的收入在50万美元到100万美元之间，至少一开始是这样。而在住宅楼盘售出后，支付的金额往往会下降，除非特朗普集团签署了管理这些房产的平行协议。
His company, however, still faces legal scrutiny.
然而，他的公司仍面临法律审查。
While Congress may no longer be as focused on Mr. Trump’s business activities, prosecutors in New York will continue their investigations.
尽管国会可能不再像以前那样关注特朗普的商业活动，但纽约的检察官仍将继续调查。
The Manhattan district attorney’s office is investigating Mr. Trump and his company for an array of potential financial crimes and is seeking his tax returns. The New York State attorney general’s office is conducting a separate civil inquiry into suspicions that the company misstated its assets, possibly to reduce taxes or obtain loans.
曼哈顿地区检察官办公室正在调查特朗普及其公司一系列潜在的金融犯罪行为，并要求获得他的纳税申报单。纽约州总检察长办公室怀疑该公司可能为了减税或者获得贷款而虚报资产，正在另案展开民事调查。
The company has denied any wrongdoing, but it may be reluctant to provide the investigators with additional deals to scrutinize. Eric Trump, who runs the company with his brother Donald Jr., last year cited scrutiny from Democrats and the media as a major reason for suspending plans to open a new line of hotels.
该公司否认有任何不当行为，但可能不愿提供更多交易，以便调查人员进行审查。共同经营这家公司的是埃里克·特朗普(Eric Trump)和小唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Jr.)兄弟。去年，埃里克·特朗普把来自民主党人和媒体的审查列为暂停新酒店项目计划的主要原因。
The investigations could also lead to negative publicity as the company is looking to expand.
调查还可能在该公司寻求扩张之际带来负面宣传。
A new stream of business partners may emerge with Mr. Trump out of the spotlight.
随着特朗普淡出聚光灯，可能会出现一批新的商业合作伙伴。
Over the past four years, Bobby R. Burchfield, a Washington lawyer, served as the Trump Organization’s ethics adviser, scrutinizing potential deals and business partners. The examinations made it difficult for some to pass muster, while others were scared off by the public attention.
在过去四年里，华盛顿律师鲍比·R·伯奇菲尔德(Bobby R. Burchfield)担任特朗普集团的道德顾问，对潜在的交易和商业伙伴进行审查。一些人很难通过这样的考核，还有一些人被公众关注吓跑了。
That scrutiny will now fall away, opening a pipeline of new partners.
现在，这种审查将会逐渐消失，新的合作伙伴渠道也将随之开启。
And with more than $300 million in debt coming due that the president has personally guaranteed, there may be some urgency for the Trump Organization to line up new deals. In addition, an adverse ruling in an audit battle with the Internal Revenue Service could cost him more than $100 million, The Times reported in September.
总统个人担保的超过3亿美元的债务即将到期，特朗普集团可能会有一些紧迫感，需要一批新的交易。此外，时报在9月的报导称，在与国税局的审计之争中，一项不利的裁决可能会让特朗普损失超过1亿美元。
A polarized country and the pandemic could hamper a rebound.
两极分化的国家和大流行可能阻碍复苏。
Some of Mr. Trump’s most lucrative properties are in Democratic strongholds, like New York and Chicago, where he remains deeply unpopular. And his biggest revenue-generator, his Doral golf resort in Florida, has suffered from a drop-off in conference revenue as some big companies and organizations stayed away because of his divisiveness.
特朗普一些最赚钱的资产位于民主党的大本营，比如纽约和芝加哥，他在那些地方仍然非常不受欢迎。而他最大的收入来源——位于佛罗里达州的多拉尔高尔夫度假村的会议收入也出现了下滑，原因是一些大公司和组织因为他的分裂行为而回避他。
As president, Mr. Trump has tried to fill the gap, at least in part, through events booked at his properties by groups connected to him and Republican politics. The Trump International Hotel near the White House was often brimming with partisan allies.
作为总统，特朗普试图填补这个差额，至少在一定程度上，是通过与他有关的团体以及共和党政治团体在他的房产中预订的活动。白宫附近的特朗普国际酒店经常挤满党派盟友。
It is unclear if that patronage will continue, or if Mr. Trump’s detractors will return to his properties once he leaves office. Additionally, it has been a tough year for the hospitality industry because of the pandemic, and the headwinds have hit commercial real estate, too. Both are central to Mr. Trump’s business portfolio.
目前还不清楚这种惠顾是否会继续下去，或者特朗普离任后，诋毁他的人是否会重返他的地产。此外，受到疫情影响，酒店业今年的日子很不好过，商业地产也受到了不利影响。二者都是特朗普商业组合的核心。
There may be another presidential act for Mr. Trump or his children.
特朗普或他的子女可能会继续竞选总统。
Mr. Trump, as of late, has privately raised the idea of running again in 2024. And the possibility of another Trump presidential run could have a chilling effect on his business in the intervening years, at least in countries like China, where a thicket of ethical and legal conflicts could arise.
最近，特朗普私下里提出了在2024年再次参选的想法。而特朗普再次竞选总统的可能性，可能会在接下来的几年里对他的生意造成寒蝉效应，至少是在中国这样可能出现一系列道德与法律冲突的国家。
The president also may not be the last Trump to run for elected office.
总统也可能不是最后一个竞选公职的特朗普家族成员。
Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump may hold future political aspirations, and that could curb some plans for growth. The risks are greatest on the international front, where potential for conflicts of interest abound.
小唐纳德·特朗普和伊万卡·特朗普(Ivanka Trump)可能怀有未来的政治抱负，这可能会抑制一些增长计划。国际方面的风险最大，因为存在大量利益冲突。
Finally, there is Mr. Trump’s love for television.
最后，还有特朗普对电视的热爱。
During his time in the White House, Mr. Trump put his eldest sons in charge of his company along with a team of other executives. But even before that, he had receded somewhat from scouting deals, letting his children take the lead.
在白宫任职期间，特朗普让长子和其他高管团队负责管理公司。但在此之前，他已经多少退出了搜寻交易，让子女来领导。
Where and how Mr. Trump will reassert himself in the family business will be one of the intriguing questions surrounding his return to private life. A onetime reality TV star, he may instead return to television as a political pundit or in another role, those around him say.
特朗普将以何种方式在家族企业中重新确立自己什么样的地位，这将是围绕他回归私人生活的有趣问题之一。他身边的人说，作为一名曾经的电视真人秀明星，他可能会以政治评论人身份或以其他角色重返电视。
There have been preliminary discussions about acquiring or starting a Trump-branded network, for example. His work on “The Apprentice,” tax records show, brought him new sources of cash and furthered a myth that would help propel him to the White House, The Times reported in September. Paid speeches and a book deal could also await him.
例如，关于收购或创建一个特朗普品牌的电视台，已经有了初步讨论。根据时报9月的报道，税务记录显示，特朗普在《学徒》(The Apprentice)的工作曾为他带来新的现金来源，并且推动了有助于他入主白宫的神话。付费演讲和出书交易也在等待着他。
