特朗普回忆录可能会大卖，但有人愿意出版吗？
A Trump Memoir Would Sell. Will Publishers Buy It?
ELIZABETH A. HARRIS, ALEXANDRA ALTER
2020年11月19日
When U.S. presidents leave office, regardless of their parties or approval ratings, a common ritual awaits: They write books, capturing the moment for history and sharing insight into one of the world’s most unusual jobs.
当美国总统离任时，不管他们属于哪个党派，也不管他们的支持率如何，都有一个共同的仪式在等着他们：他们要写书，捕捉历史时刻，分享对世界上最不寻常的工作之一的见解。
But publishers are at odds over such a project with President Donald Trump, even though his presidential memoir would likely sell millions of copies. It is a debate that pits powerful commercial interests against fraught political and cultural fault lines, with some executives worried that signing him would prompt a revolt among their authors and staff, and that ensuring the book’s veracity could be an even bigger concern.
尽管他的总统回忆录可能会卖出数百万册，出版商们与唐纳德·特朗普总统在这个项目上还是存在分歧。这是一个将强大的商业利益与令人担忧的政治和文化裂痕对立起来的辩论。一些高管担心，与他签约会在他们的作者和员工中引发抗议，而确保这本书的真实性可能是一个更大的担忧。
“I would take a meeting,” said Dana Canedy, the senior vice president and publisher of Simon & Schuster’s namesake imprint. “But there’s a huge gap between taking a meeting and publishing a book.”
“我会就此开个会，”西蒙与舒斯特公司(Simon & Schuster)同名出版社的高级副总裁兼出版人达纳·坎迪(Dana Canedy)说。“但开会和出书之间还有很大的差距。”
Concentrated in New York City, mainstream book publishing is dominated by editors, agents, publicists and other professionals who are politically left of center, but the big houses all sign books by conservatives, seeing it as key to their mission and their business.
主流图书出版主要集中在纽约市，由编辑、经纪人、公关人员和其他政治上偏左的专业人士主导，但大出版社都会签保守派人士的书，认为这是他们的使命和业务的关键。
Sean Hannity is at Simon & Schuster. Sarah Sanders is at Macmillan. Newt Gingrich has been published by divisions of Penguin Random House, Hachette and Macmillan.
肖恩·汉尼蒂(Sean Hannity)签了西蒙与舒斯特，莎拉·桑德斯(Sarah Sanders)签了麦克米伦(Macmillan)，纽特·金里奇 (Newt Gingrich)的书则由企鹅兰登书屋(Penguin Random House)下属出版社、桦榭(Hachette)和麦克米伦出版。
Trump has published more than a dozen books with houses that include Simon & Schuster, HarperCollins and Penguin Random House, although some titles have sold more than others. According to NPD BookScan, “Trump: The Best Golf Advice I Ever Received” has sold about 3,500 copies through traditional retail channels, like Amazon or big-box stores, since it came out 15 years ago. “The Art of the Deal” has sold more than 630,000 copies.
特朗普已经出版了十几本书，出版商包括西蒙与舒斯特、哈珀柯林斯(HarperCollins)和企鹅兰登书屋，不过销量参差不齐。据NPD BookScan称，《特朗普：我收到的最好的高尔夫建议》(Trump: The Best Golf Advice I Ever Received)自15年前出版以来，通过亚马逊(Amazon)或大商场等传统零售渠道售出3500本。《交易的艺术》(The Art of the Deal)则已经卖出超过63万本。
Sales and profits this time around stand to be huge. Trump was defeated in the 2020 election but still has a megaphone on social media and holds sway with many conservative media outlets, which will give him a platform to promote his book even when he is out of office. More than 73 million people voted for him this year.
这次的销量和利润将是巨大的。特朗普在2020年大选中被击败，但他仍在社交媒体上拥有扩音器，并在许多保守派媒体中占据主导地位，这将为他提供一个平台，即使在卸任后也可以宣传他的书。今年有超过7300万人投票给他。
But the risks this time are different, too. Several top executives said that publishing Trump could be perilous in a polarized media environment — to a degree that is far different from his books released before he became president — and that the possibilities of boycotts, libel lawsuits and social media campaigns outweighed the obvious financial benefits. Earlier this year, Hachette dropped a planned memoir by Woody Allen following protests by its employees and Allen’s son Ronan Farrow, an author who is also published by a Hachette imprint.
但这次的风险也有所不同。几位高管表示，在一个两极分化的媒体环境下，出版特朗普的作品可能是危险的——其程度与他当选总统前出版的书籍大不相同——抵制、诽谤诉讼和社交媒体运动的可能性超过了明显的经济利益。今年早些时候，桦榭放弃了伍迪·艾伦(Woody Allen)计划出版的回忆录，此前桦榭的员工和艾伦的儿子罗南·法罗(Ronan Farrow)提出了抗议。法罗也是桦榭旗下一家出版社的作家。
Others noted that publishers would face credibility issues if they released a book by a public figure known for spreading falsehoods and misinformation. Publishers, who typically rely on authors for fact-checking and accuracy, would likely need to take additional steps to verify that Trump’s account was factual and that he would be willing to undergo that kind of review. And if the factual and legal vetting did not eventually satisfy the publisher, would they be able to claw back whatever portion of the advance had already been paid?
还有人指出，如果出版商发行的书出自一个以散布谎言和虚假信息闻名的公众人物之手，他们将面临信誉问题。通常依赖作者进行事实核查以保证准确性的出版商可能需要采取额外措施，才能验证特朗普的叙述是否真实，并得确保他愿意接受这种审查。而且，如果事实和法律审查最终不能让出版商满意，他们还能讨回已经支付的预付款吗？
“I’d have to be satisfied that he met Simon & Schuster’s overall standards for publishing a book, which is that book be honest, fair and balanced,” Canedy said. “We’d want to know that he would be willing to be edited and submit to a rigorous fact-checking process.”
“只有书符合西蒙与舒斯特的总体标准，即诚实、公正和平衡，我才能接受，”坎内迪说。“我们想知道他是否愿意接受编辑修改，服从严格的事实核查程序。”
Any potential deal would also depend on what he wanted to write about, she added.
任何可能的协议也将取决于他想写什么，她补充道。
“If he presented a proposal for a book about how he single-handedly changed America, that’s one thing,” Canedy said. “If he presented a proposal about where he took the Republican Party and how, that’s a very different book.”
“如果他说要写一本关于他如何单枪匹马改变了美国的书，那是一码事，”坎内迪说。“如果他提议要写关于他是怎么带共和党走到这一步的，那就是一本完全不同的书了。”
Speculation about Trump’s plans for his memoir — which he has hinted at in the past — began picking up in the days after the election. Though he does not yet appear to be actively shopping one, his finances are under stress and he could be looking for the type of cash infusion a book might bring.
关于特朗普计划——他以前就暗示过——写回忆录的猜测在大选后的几天里开始增多。虽然他似乎还没有积极兜售这个想法，但他在财务上正面临压力，也许会寻找一本书可能带来的那种现金注入。
Most of the president’s businesses are losing money, according to an investigation by The New York Times, which obtained two decades of his corporate and personal tax information. These tax records also show that he has hundreds of millions of dollars in debt coming due in the next few years that he has personally guaranteed. He is also under audit by the IRS. This audit has been going on for years, and an adverse ruling could cost him more than $100 million.
根据获取了他的公司和个人长达20年税务信息的《纽约时报》调查，总统的大部分业务都在亏损。这些税务记录还显示，他有数亿美元的个人担保债务将在未来几年到期。他还在接受国税局(IRS)的审计。这一工作已经进行数年，一项不利裁决就可能让他损失上亿美元。
Presidential memoirs have long been a popular and lucrative subgenre. Such books have a built-in audience and are generally reliable moneymakers. Even Richard Nixon found a publisher for his 1978 memoir, “RN,” despite a boycott effort.
长期以来，总统回忆录都是颇受欢迎且利润丰厚的题材。这类书籍有固定读者群，通常都是可靠的赚钱买卖。尽管遭到抵制，但就连理查德·尼克松(Richard Nixon)也为他1978年的《尼克松回忆录》(RN)找到了出版商。
But blowback from within the industry to a Trump memoir, especially as he refuses to concede that he lost the election, is likely to be severe.
但出版特朗普回忆录在业内的反响可能很严重，特别是在他拒绝承认败选的情况下。
Celeste Ng, the author of the best-selling novel “Little Fires Everywhere,” said she wouldn’t hesitate to speak out against her publisher, Penguin Random House, if it struck a deal with Trump.
畅销小说《小小小小的火》(Little Fires Everywhere)的作者伍绮诗(Celeste Ng)说，如果她的出版商企鹅兰登书屋与特朗普签约，她会毫不犹豫公开反对。
“We have every reason to believe a Trump memoir would be primarily misinformation, ungrounded opinions and flat-out lies,” she said in an email. “Don’t pay him to do it and don’t give him the legitimacy of a contract with a major publishing house. If you’re going to set yourself up as a gatekeeper, you have a responsibility for what goes through your gate.”
“我们有充分理由相信，一本特朗普的回忆录主要会由虚假信息、无稽之谈和赤裸裸的谎言构成，”她一封电邮中在表示。“不要付钱给他写书，也不要让他有大出版社合约的撑腰。如果你打算把自己当作一个看门人，你就得对进门的东西负责。”
Some prominent writers who have been outspoken critics of the president said they would not object if a publisher took on the project. Stephen King, who has frequently denounced Trump on Twitter, said in an email that Trump should be given the opportunity to release his book, as a matter of principle.
一些曾直言不讳批评过总统的大作家表示，如果有出版商接手这个项目，他们不会反对。经常在Twitter上抨击特朗普的斯蒂芬·金(Stephen King)在一封电邮中表示，应该给特朗普出书的机会，这是个原则问题。
“Anything he wrote would be a pack of self-serving lies, but I believe in the freedom of people to read what they want, and I hate censorship,” said King, who is one of Simon & Schuster’s top-selling authors. “Let him publish, if he wants. I hope my publisher won’t be the one to do it, but in any case I can’t wait to see the critics take him apart.”
“他写的任何东西都是一堆自私的谎言，但我相信人们有自由去读他们想读的东西，我讨厌审查制度，”金说，他是西蒙与舒斯特最畅销的作家之一。“他想出就出吧。我希望我的出版商不会帮他出，但无论如何，我都迫不及待想看到评论家们将他拆穿。”
Keith Urbahn and Matt Latimer, who co-founded the Javelin literary agency and have represented several former Trump administration officials, said they would take a meeting with Trump but acknowledged how difficult it would be to find the book a home.
共同创立标枪文学社(Javelin)的基斯·厄本(Keith Urbahn)和马特·拉蒂默(Matt Latimer)曾代理过数位特朗普政府的前官员，他们表示愿意与特朗普会面，但也承认要为这本书找到归宿是多么困难。
“It’s going to be an extraordinarily hard time to sell the Donald Trump memoir,” Urbahn said. “While not entirely insurmountable, this is the thorniest nonfiction publishing challenge that I’ve ever seen.”
“唐纳德·特朗普的回忆录想推销出去将非常困难，”厄本说。“虽然并非完全不可克服，但这是我见过的最棘手的非虚构类出版难题。”
Thomas Spence, the president of the conservative publisher Regnery, which has worked with Trump before, said he would be eager to buy the president’s memoir, but he doubted that the big five publishers would ultimately refuse such a big seller.
保守派出版商莱格尼里出版社(Regnery)的总裁托马斯·斯宾塞(Thomas Spence)曾与特朗普合作，他说自己很愿意买下总统回忆录的版权，但他怀疑五大出版商是否会拒绝一本这么好卖的书。
“I’m hoping they will stand by their principles and not get involved,” he joked, “so we have a better chance of picking it up!”
“我们希望他们能坚持自己的原则，不要参与其中，”他开玩笑道，“这样我们就有更大机会捡到它！”
Another possibility is that Trump could self-publish a book and bypass the houses entirely. That would mean taking on printing, distribution and other logistical headaches along with financial risk, since self-published authors forgo an advance in exchange for a much higher percentage of sales. But given the number of books that Trump is likely to sell, retaining complete control of a book’s content and message is likely to be an appealing proposition.
另一个可能是，特朗普自行出版一本书，彻底绕过那些出版商。这将意味着要承担印刷、发行和其他物流方面的麻烦，还要担上财务风险，因为自行出版的作者得放弃预付款，以换取高很多的销售分成。考虑到特朗普可能卖出的数量，保住对该书内容和信息的全部控制权也许是个很有吸引力的想法。
His son Donald Trump Jr. released his first book with the Hachette imprint Center Street but self-published a new one this fall called “Liberal Privilege: Joe Biden and the Democrats’ Defense of the Indefensible.” It has sold just 12,000 copies through traditional retail channels, according to NPD BookScan, which is significantly less than his first book. It’s not clear how many he has sold in other places, such as through his website.
他的儿子小唐纳德·特朗普在桦榭旗下的中央街出版社(Center Street)出版了自己的第一本书，但今秋又自行出版了一本新书，名叫《自由特权：乔·拜登和民主党人为不可辩护而辩护》(Liberal Privilege: Joe Biden and the Democrats Defense of the Indefensible)。根据NPD BookScan的数据，这本书在传统零售渠道上仅售出1.2万册，远远低于他的第一本书。目前尚不清楚他在其他渠道（比如自己的网站）卖了多少。
But with his finances strained, will Trump want the guaranteed cash infusion, much of it upfront, that a publisher can provide? George W. Bush reportedly received an advance of $7 million for his 2010 memoir, “Decision Points.” Bill Clinton sold his autobiography, “My Life,” to Knopf for around $15 million. Most recently, Barack and Michelle Obama received some $65 million from Penguin Random House for their books. Obama’s memoir, “A Promised Land,” which Crown released this week, is already shaping up to be a blockbuster, with a global first printing of nearly 6 million copies.
但在财务紧张的情况下，特朗普会想要一家出版商能提供给他的（大部分还是预付）有保障的现金注入吗？据报道，乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)靠2010年的回忆录《抉择时刻》(Decision Points)获得了700万美元的预付款。比尔·克林顿(Bill Clinton)将自传《我的生活》(My Life)以1500万美元的价格卖给了克诺夫出版社(Knopf)。最近，贝拉克(Barack)和米歇尔·奥巴马(Michelle Obama)出的书从企鹅兰登书屋获得了6500万美元。由皇冠出版社(Crown)本周出版的奥巴马回忆录《应许之地》(A Promised Land)有望成为轰动性巨作，其全球首印量已经接近600万册。
An article in The New York Post last week, citing an unnamed source, said Trump could be offered book and TV deals worth $100 million, but publishing professionals said that number was almost certainly too high for a book.
《纽约邮报》(New York Post)上周的一篇文章援引匿名消息人士的话称，特朗普可能得到价值1亿美元的图书和电视合约报价，但专业出版人士表示，这个数字对于一本书来说肯定太高了。
“Unless he plans to write the Bible, I don’t think that’s accurate,” said the best-selling author Scott Turow. “But I’ll guarantee one thing: He’ll want a bigger advance than Obama got.”
“除非他打算写一本《圣经》，否则我认为这个数字不准确，”畅销书作家斯科特·图罗(Scott Turow)说。“但我可以确定一件事：他想要比奥巴马更多的预付款。”
