感染新冠病毒后，特朗普面临怎样的风险？
Trump Has the Coronavirus. What Risks Does He Face?
黄瑞黎
2020年10月3日
President Trump’s announcement on Friday that he had tested positive for the coronavirus has raised many questions about what the infection could mean for the health of America’s top leader.
特朗普总统周五宣布，自己的新型冠状病毒检测呈阳性，这引发了许多关于这种感染可能对美国最高领导人的健康意味着什么的问题。
In a statement, the president’s physician said Mr. Trump, who is 74, was “well” but did not say whether he was experiencing symptoms. He said the president would stay isolated in the White House for now.
总统的医生在一份声明中说，特朗普的身体“很好”，但未说现年74岁的总统是否表现出症状。医生说，总统到目前为止仍在白宫进行隔离。（根据最新消息，特朗普出现了发烧、咳嗽等轻微症状，并已经前往沃尔特·里德国家军事医学中心[Walter Reed National Military Medical Center]接受检查——编注。）
Here is what we know about how the virus could affect people with his general profile.
关于病毒会怎样侵袭他这种类型的人的问题，我们所知如下。
Older men are at greater risk of becoming seriously sick.
老年男性病情变重的风险更大。
Older men are up to twice as likely to die from Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, as women of the same age are, according to an analysis by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Another study, published in Nature in August, found that this was because men produce a weaker immune response than do women.
据中国疾病预防控制中心的一项分析，老年男性死于新冠病毒引发的疾病的可能性是同龄女性的两倍。《自然》杂志今年8月发表的另一项研究发现，这是因为男性产生的免疫响应比女性的弱。
The potential for needing hospitalization rises after the age of 50, said Raina MacIntyre, who heads the biosecurity program at the Kirby Institute of the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia.
澳大利亚悉尼新南威尔士大学柯比研究所的生物安全项目负责人雷娜·麦金泰尔(Raina MacIntyre)说，50岁以上的人需要住院治疗的可能性增高。
Obesity poses another risk factor for dying — particularly among men, according to an analysis of thousands of patients treated at a Southern California health system.
据对数千名在南加州卫生系统接受治疗的患者的分析，肥胖是死亡风险的另一个因素，特别是在男性患者中。
“If you don’t know anything about Donald Trump, just knowing that he’s a male, over 70, and appears to be overweight, right away, you can say he’s in the high-risk group,” said Michael Baker, a professor with the department of global health at the University of Otago in Wellington who is an adviser to the New Zealand government.
“如果你对唐纳德·特朗普一无所知，只知道他是男性，年龄在70岁以上，而且似乎体重过高，你可以说他属于高危人群，”惠灵顿奥塔哥大学(University of Otago)全球健康系的迈克尔·贝克(Michael Baker)说，他是新西兰政府的顾问。
Still, many people his age have recovered from Covid-19.
尽管如此，许多他这种年纪的人已在患了新冠肺炎后康复。
Even though the risk of severe illness from Covid-19 increases with age, most people who contract it get well quickly with minimal symptoms.
尽管新冠病毒引发严重疾病的风险随着年龄的增长而增加，但感染这种病毒的人中，大多数症状很轻，而且很快就能康复。
“The good news is that even people who have a number of risk factors, on average, do well,” Professor Baker said. “Only a minority have illness and severe consequences.”
“好消息是，即使是那些有多个风险因素的人，平均来说也会康复，”贝克说。“只有少数人会患重症并面临严重后果。”
“A lot of people his age who get Covid are actually fine,” said Benjamin Cowling, head of the division of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Hong Kong.
“许多他这种年纪的人得了新冠病毒疾病后，实际上问题不大，”香港大学流行病学和生物统计学系主任高本恩(Benjamin Cowling)说。
The outcome could be complicated if Mr. Trump has certain underlying health conditions, which researchers widely agree pose a risk of serious illness.
如果特朗普有某些潜在健康问题的话，结果可能会变得复杂。研究人员普遍认为，这些潜在的问题带来了患重症的风险。
Mr. Trump, White House officials and his doctor have maintained in recent months that the president was in good health. But Mr. Trump loves cheeseburgers and does not exercise much, aside from playing golf. In June, Mr. Trump’s doctor said the president weighed 244 pounds, which makes him slightly obese.
特朗普、白宫官员和他的医生近几个月来一直坚称总统的健康状况良好。但特朗普喜欢吃芝士汉堡，除了打高尔夫球外，他不怎么运动。今年6月，特朗普的医生说，总统的体重是244磅(约合111公斤)，这让他略为肥胖。
“If he doesn’t have diabetes, high blood pressure or any long-term illness, then the outcome probably won’t be severe,” said David Hui, the director of the Stanley Ho Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
“如果他没有糖尿病、高血压或其他慢性疾病的话，结果可能不会很严重，”香港中文大学何鸿燊防治传染病研究中心主任许树昌说。
It’s hard to say how long it would take for Mr. Trump to recover.
特朗普需要多长时间才能康复很难说。
Experts agree that the next week will be critical in determining the course of Mr. Trump’s illness.
专家们一致认为，未来一周是决定特朗普病情发展的关键阶段。
If Mr. Trump does not develop symptoms, antibodies will appear 10 days after the onset of illness and he will recover, according to Dr. Hui at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
如果特朗普不表现出症状，他会在感染病毒的十天内产生抗体，然后会康复，香港中文大学的许树昌说。
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said that “the good news about Covid-19” is that about 40 percent of those who get infected never develop symptoms.
美国国家过敏和传染病研究所(National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases)所长安东尼·福奇(Anthony Fauci)博士说，“有关新冠病毒疾病的好消息”是，大约40%的感染者从未表现出症状。
Current estimates suggest that symptoms, if they appear, could do so as soon as two days or as long as 14 days after exposure to the virus.
目前的估计认为，如果有症状的话，可能会在接触病毒后最短两天、最长14天的时间里表现出来。
If Mr. Trump develops mild symptoms such as a cough, fever or shortness of breath, it could take him a week to recover. A severe illness, which could mean developing lung lesions and pneumonia, could require hospitalization, possible ventilation and months of treatment.
如果特朗普表现出咳嗽、发烧或气短等轻微症状的话，可能需要一周时间就能恢复健康。重症则可能意味着肺部的病变和肺炎，可能需要住院，可能需要上呼吸机和几个月时间的治疗。
“You couldn’t put a specific time on it,” said Dominic Dwyer, a medical virologist at the University of Sydney. “Irrespective of what one thinks about politics, you wouldn’t wish this on anyone.”
“无法给出具体的时间，”悉尼大学(University of Sydney)疾病病毒学家多米尼克·德怀尔(Dominic Dwyer)说。“不管一个人持怎样的政治观点，都不会希望这种事发生在任何人身上。”
Treatment will depend on the severity of his illness.
治疗方案将视病情的严重程度而定。
Experts agree that Mr. Trump’s treatment regimen will depend on whether he develops symptoms in the coming days.
专家们一致认为，特朗普的治疗方案将取决于他在未来几天是否表现出症状。
As long as he has no symptoms, or limited symptoms, maintaining a comfortable environment in which he can be isolated for 14 days and be regularly assessed by doctors would suffice.
只要他没有症状，或症状较轻，在一个舒适的环境里隔离14天，并定期接受医生的评估就足够了。
There is, of course, no cure yet for Covid-19. But if Mr. Trump develops pneumonia and respiratory failure and other signs of a more serious condition, a number of treatments that have been used widely by doctors and nurses would be available to him.
当然，目前还没有治愈新冠病毒疾病的方法。但如果特朗普出现肺炎、呼吸衰竭以及其他更严重症状的话，他可能会接受医生和护士已在广泛使用的几种治疗方法。
Remdesivir, an antiviral drug designed to treat both hepatitis and a common respiratory virus, has shown to be useful for treating severely ill patients. A steroid called dexamethasone has also reduced mortality in such patients, according to scientists at the University of Oxford.
瑞德西韦(Remdesivir)是一种用于治疗肝炎和一种常见呼吸道病毒的抗病毒药物，已表明对治疗重症患者有效。据牛津大学的科学家，一种名为地塞米松(dexamethasone)的类固醇也能降低重症患者的死亡率。
