若特朗普无法履职怎么办？这里是五种可能性
What if Trump Can’t Run? Many Steps Are Clear, but Some Are Not
NICHOLAS FANDOS, NICK CORASANITI
2020年10月4日
WASHINGTON — President Trump’s positive coronavirus test has raised the possibility, however remote, that he could become incapacitated or potentially die in office if his symptoms worsen.
华盛顿——特朗普总统新冠病毒检测结果为阳性，如果症状恶化，他就有可能在任职期间丧失工作能力或去世，尽管这种可能性微乎其微。
While that outcome remains highly unlikely, and few in Washington were willing to discuss it on Friday, when Mr. Trump was taken to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center for treatment, the Constitution and Congress long ago put in place a plan of succession to ensure that the nation is protected from adversaries and internal conflict when the elected president cannot serve.
虽然这样的结果目前仍然不太可能出现，而且华盛顿很少有人愿意在周五特朗普被送往沃尔特·里德国家军事医学中心(Walter Reed National Military Medical Center)接受治疗时讨论这个问题，但是宪法和国会在很久以前就制定了继任计划，以确保在当选总统无法履职的情况下，国家不会受到敌对势力和内部冲突的影响。
The Constitution makes clear that the vice president is first in line to succeed the president should he or she die in office, and can step in to temporarily take on the duties of the presidency should the commander in chief become incapacitated. Vice President Mike Pence, 61, tested negative for the coronavirus on Friday.
宪法明确规定，如果总统在任上去世，副总统将是接替他或她的第一顺位人选，如果最高统帅丧失能力，副总统可以临时接管总统职务。61岁的副总统迈克·彭斯(Mike Pence)周五的新冠病毒检测结果为阴性。
Other situations become far more complicated and are wrapped in a cloud of legal disagreement over what to do if a president cannot exercise his duties but refuses to give them up, or wins election but cannot serve, or in a case in which the president and the vice president are incapacitated.
其他情况则复杂得多，并被诸多法律分歧所笼罩，比如总统不能履职但拒绝放弃职责，或赢得选举但不能履职，又或者总统和副总统都丧失能力的情况下，应当如何处理。
Here’s how it works:
以下是宪法提出的解决办法：
What happens if Trump dies or cannot serve?
如果特朗普去世或无法履职会怎样？
The Constitution and the law are clearest in instances when a president dies or must resign from office. The 25th Amendment states: “In case of the removal of the president from office or of his death or resignation, the vice president shall become president.”
对于总统去世或必须辞职的情况，宪法和法律是最明确的。第25条修正案规定：“如遇总统被免职、死亡或辞职，副总统应成为总统。”
The ascension of a vice president under such circumstances has not been that rare in United States history. A vice president has assumed the nation’s highest office because of the president’s death eight times, most recently in 1963, after the assassination of John F. Kennedy, when Lyndon B. Johnson became president. (In 1974, Vice President Gerald Ford became president after the resignation of President Richard M. Nixon.)
在美国历史上，副总统在这种情况下晋升并不是罕见。因总统去世而由副总统担任国家最高职务的情况出现过8次，最近一次是在1963年，约翰·F·肯尼迪(John F. Kennedy)遇刺后，林登·B·约翰逊(Lyndon B. Johnson)成为总统。（1974年，副总统杰拉德·福特[Gerald Ford]在总统理查德·M·尼克松[Richard M. Nixon]辞职后成为总统。）
The Constitution leaves it to Congress to decide what should happen if the vice president also dies or cannot serve, and several laws have been enacted to lay out the contingencies.
根据宪法，如果副总统也去世或无法履职，应该由国会来决定如何处理，目前已经颁布了几项法律来应对此类意外。
The most recent, the Presidential Succession Act, was enacted in 1947 after the death of President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1945. (It was tweaked again in 2006.) The statute says the speaker of the House is next in line, followed by the president pro tempore of the Senate, and then members of the cabinet, starting with the secretary of state.
最近的一项《总统继任法案》(Presidential Succession Act)，是在富兰克林·D·罗斯福(Franklin D. Roosevelt)1945年去世后，于1947年颁布的。（它于2006年再次修改。）该法案规定，接下来的继任者是众议院议长，其后是参议院临时议长，再之后是内阁成员，从国务卿开始。
Speaker Nancy Pelosi, 80, said on Friday that she had tested negative for the virus and was confident that the right plans were in place, should they become necessary.
80岁的众议院议长南希·佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)在周五表示，她的病毒检测结果是阴性，并相信如果有必要，正确的计划已经到位。
“Continuity of government is always in place,” she said on MSNBC. “I always say it’s a relic of the past, but nonetheless, they say we have our job we have to do, and this is what we’ll do.”
“政府的连续性始终存在，”她在接受MSNBC采访时说。“我总说那是过去的遗迹，但不管怎样，它们说我们有必须要做的工作，这就是我们会做的事。”
Senator Charles E. Grassley, Republican of Iowa, is the current president pro tempore in the Senate. He is 87.
艾奥瓦州共和党参议员查尔斯·E·格拉斯利(Charles E. Grassley)是现任参议院临时议长，现年87岁。
What if the president is too ill to perform his duties?
如果总统病重，无法履行职责怎么办？
Under the 25th Amendment, ratified in the 1960s to clarify presidential disability and succession planning, presidents can voluntarily designate powers to their vice presidents if they become seriously ill or are unable to perform their duties.
在1960年代生效的第25条修正案明确了总统失去能力的情况和继任计划，如果总统病情严重或无法履行职责，他们可以自愿将权力授予副总统。
If Mr. Trump became gravely ill, he could provide letters to the speaker of the House and the president pro tempore of the Senate saying he was “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office” to transfer his powers to Mr. Pence, who would, in effect, become acting president. Mr. Trump could reclaim his full authorities when he recovered.
如果特朗普病重，他可以向众议院议长和参议院临时议长提交书面声明，称自己“不能够履行其职务的权力和责任”，将权力移交给彭斯，后者实际上将成为代理总统。特朗普痊愈后可以收回全部权力。
On Friday afternoon, as Mr. Trump was expected to depart for Walter Reed, Judd Deere, a White House spokesman, said the president would remain fully in power.
周五下午，在特朗普应该已动身前往沃尔特·里德接受治疗之时，白宫发言人贾德·迪尔(Judd Deere)称，总统将继续掌握全部权力。
“No transfer,” he said. “The president is in charge.”
“没有移交，”他说。“总统主持大局。”
Since the amendment was ratified in 1967, the vice president has taken power in only three instances, each of them exceedingly brief. In 1985, when President Ronald Reagan was put under anesthesia for a colon procedure, he granted his powers to Vice President George Bush for about eight hours, though he avoided formally invoking the amendment. And in 2002 and 2007, President George W. Bush temporarily transferred his authorities to Vice President Dick Cheney during colonoscopies.
自1967年该修正案通过以来，只出现了三次副总统获得权力的情况，每次都非常短暂。1985年，罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan)因结肠手术接受麻醉，他将权力授予副总统乔治·布什(George Bush)大约八个小时，但他避免了正式启用该修正案。在2002年和2007年，乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)做结肠镜检查时，暂时将权力移交给了副总统迪克·切尼(Dick Cheney)。
Can the president be involuntarily replaced?
总统能在非自愿的情况下被取代吗？
The 25th Amendment also allows for the forcible removal of a president, including if he is too ill to designate his authorities or simply refuses to do so.
第25条修正案还允许强行罢免总统，包括如果他病得太重而不能指定权力、或是干脆拒绝这样做的情况。
To the amendment’s authors, these were not merely wild hypotheticals. After he had a stroke in 1919, President Woodrow Wilson spent the remainder of his term partially paralyzed and blinded; his condition was mostly kept a secret.
对修正案的作者来说，这不仅仅是夸张的假想。伍德罗·威尔逊(Woodrow Wilson)于1919年中风，在任期剩余时间里都处于部分瘫痪和失明的状态；但他的病情基本被保密了。
The amendment grants the vice president, acting together with the cabinet or a group appointed by Congress, powers to intervene. If a majority of either group decides and informs the House and Senate that the president is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office,” then “the vice president shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as acting president.” The power has never been used, and political considerations could make it difficult to unlock.
该修正案授予副总统与行政各部长官或国会任命的小组一起进行干预的权力。无论哪一组中的大多数人决定并告知众参两院，总统“不能够履行总统职务的权力和责任”，那么“副总统应立即作为代理总统承担总统职务的权力和责任”。这样的权力还从未被使用过，政治上的考量可能会使其难以解锁。
The arrangement would last until the president informed Congress that “no inability exists” and he could perform his duties. If the group that removed his or her powers disagreed, the question would be left to Congress, with a requirement that two-thirds of the House and Senate must agree in order to strip the elected president of power.
这一安排将一直持续到总统告知国会“丧失能力的情况不存在”，他可以继续履行职责为止。如果解除他或她权力的小组不同意，这个问题将留给国会，需要众参两院三分之二的议员同意，才能剥夺当选总统的权力。
What if there is a dispute over who is in power?
如果掌握权力的人选出现争议怎么办？
Although the presidential succession is clearly enshrined in law, some legal scholars argue that it may not be consistent with the Constitution, posing potentially disastrous problems if the nation’s top two leaders could no longer serve.
虽然法律明确规定了总统继承顺序，但一些法律学者认为，这可能与宪法不一致，如果两位国家最高领导人不能任职，可能会带来灾难性的问题。
Some constitutional scholars have raised doubts about whether the speaker of the House and the president pro tempore of the Senate are eligible to step in for the president, arguing that the framers intended for only executive branch officials — an “officer” is the term in the Constitution — to qualify.
一些宪法学者对众议院议长和参议院临时议长是否有资格接替总统职位提出了疑问，认为制宪者的意思是只有行政部门人员——宪法术语是“官员(officer)”——才有资格。
Jack L. Goldsmith, a Harvard Law School professor, warned this year that the seemingly arcane dispute could cause a clash. It is possible, for instance, that Ms. Pelosi and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the next executive branch official in line, could make competing claims to the presidency.
哈佛大学法学教授杰克·L·戈德史密斯(Jack L. Goldsmith)今年就警告称，这一看似玄妙的争端可能会引发冲突。例如，佩洛西和下一个行政部门继任人选国务卿迈克·庞皮欧(Mike Pompeo)可能对总统职位提出竞争性要求。
“These are all nightmare scenarios because these points of constitutional law have really never been tested,” Mr. Goldsmith said.
“那都会成为噩梦般的情况，因为这些宪法法律的要点从未真正经受过考验，”戈德史密斯说。
It is also unclear what would happen if the president and vice president became temporarily incapacitated. Norman J. Ornstein, a congressional scholar at the American Enterprise Institute who has studied the issue, said that situation could easily result in dueling short-term claims to presidential authority among the White House chief of staff, the secretary of state or other figures.
如果总统和副总统都暂时失去能力，也不清楚会发生什么。研究过这个问题的美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)国会学者诺曼·J·奥恩斯坦(Norman J. Ornstein)称，这种情况很容易导致白宫幕僚长、国务卿或其他人在短期内争夺总统权力。
“You think about ambiguity in the chains of command when we have adversaries around the world,” he said. “We could end up with some real issues and a government in effect adrift with some competing power players.”
“当我们在世界各地都有敌人的时候，再想到指挥系统里的含糊不清，”他说。“这可能最终导致一些真正的问题，以及一个实际上被某些相互竞争的势力左右的政府。”
What happens if Trump cannot run anymore?
如果特朗普不能继续竞选怎么办？
It gets messy, quickly.
情况很快就会变得一团糟。
First, the Republican National Committee would have to produce a new nominee, a process that would involve Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel and the 168 national members — three from each state and territory. But since many states have already started printing, mailing and accepting ballots, and some have begun in-person voting, the name of a new nominee could be unlikely to be printed on ballots in time for Election Day.
首先，共和党全国委员会(Republican National Committee)必须产生一位新提名人，这一过程将涉及该委员会主席罗娜·麦克丹尼尔(Ronna McDaniel)和168名国家成员——每个州和属地各有三名成员。但由于许多州已经开始印刷、邮寄和接受选票，有些州已经开始现场投票，新候选人的名字不太可能在选举日前被及时打印到选票上。
Then it would fall to individual states to decide how to proceed, and most have not set rules for this situation.
然后各州就要决定如何进行投票，但大多数州还没有为这种情况制定规则。
“It would be a question of what each state’s law says or doesn’t say about what happens in this eventuality, and many state laws are just silent on this possibility,” said Richard L. Hasen, a law professor at the University of California, Irvine, who also discussed the issue on his Election Law blog. “So there may be questions about what to do.”
“问题会出现在每个州的法律对这种可能发生的情况有什么规定，或是没有规定，而许多州的法律对这种可能性只是保持沉默，”加州大学欧文分校(University of California, Irvine)的法学教授理查德·L·哈森(Richard L. Hasen)表示，他也在自己的选举法博客上讨论了这个问题。“所以关于该做什么，可能会有疑问。”
The question would become more complex if Mr. Trump won but was unable to serve. Some but not all states bind their electors to vote for whoever wins the state, but even most states with binding elector laws make no mention of what could happen should a candidate die or be unable to serve.
如果特朗普赢得大选却无法任职，问题将变得更加复杂。有些州（但不是所有州）规定，选举人必须把票投给在该州获胜的人，但即使是大多数有选举人约束法律的州，也没有提及候选人去世或无法任职时可能发生的情况。
The question could be resolved by Congress, which certifies the Electoral College vote, or it could end up in the courts.
这个问题可以由负责确认选举人团投票结果的国会来解决，或者最终由法院来处理。
